91制片厂/Mainstreet Poll: Trump Edges Harris in Georgia and North Carolina
2024 presidential race is in its final 2 months
A new poll from the 91制片厂 Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab () and Mainstreet Research USA reveals a tight U.S. presidential race in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina.聽
听听听听听听听听听听听 The recent polls conducted in Georgia and North Carolina reveal a highly competitive landscape for the upcoming election, offering significant insights into voter preferences, media consumption and electoral trust.
听听听听听听听听听听听 Former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a small lead over U.S Vice President Kamala Harris 47% to 45% among likely voters in Georgia. And in North Carolina, Trump narrowly leads Harris 48% to 47%.
听听听听听听听听听听听 In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Democratic candidate Josh Stein is leading Republican Mark Robinson 50% to 39%, with 7% of likely voters undecided.
听听听听听听听听听听听 鈥淭he close distribution of support between the two major party candidates suggests that Georgia and North Carolina remain highly competitive,鈥澛爏aid Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. 鈥淎mong likely voters, the undecided population, though small, could still play a crucial role in determining the outcome, particularly in a tight race such as this one.鈥
听听听听听听听听听听听 Trust in Election Process: Majority Confident, but Division Remains
听听听听听听听听听听听 While the race in both states is tight, the way voters feel about the process remains positive, with 61% in Georgia indicating they find the electoral process trustworthy (33% very trustworthy and 28% somewhat trustworthy). In North Carolina, 56% find the process trustworthy (33% very trustworthy and 23% somewhat trustworthy).
听听听听听听听听听听听 Campaign Ad Visibility: Mixed Results in Ad Wars
听听听听听听听听听听听 As Trump and Harris fight for visibility through their respective ad campaigns, each candidate can claim more visibility in one of the states. In Georgia, Harris/Walz ads are slightly more visible (31%) than Trump/Vance ads (23%); while in North Carolina, Trump/Vance ads are slightly more visible (29%) than Harris/Walz ads (26%).
听听听听听听听听听听听 News Source Preferences: Traditional Media Dominates, Digital Gains Ground
听听听听听听听听听听听 Likely voters in both states continue to utilize cable news as their main source of information. Of those polled, 41% in Georgia and 39% in North Carolina seek this traditional format, with 28% in Georgia and 25% relying on national news. More Republicans prefer cable news鈥 sources (53% in Georgia, 49% in North Carolina); as compared to Democrats (35% in both Georgia and North Carolina); and Independents (28% in Georgia; 32% in North Carolina).
听听听听听听听听听听听 Online news sources are preferred by 19% in Georgia and 18% in North Carolina; however, 30% of voters in Georgia and 25% in North Carolina under the age of 50 indicated they use social media and websites over all other forms of media.
听听听听听听听听听听听 鈥淭he divide in how voters get their news reveals just how fractured political media has become,鈥 said Carol Bishop Mills, Ph.D., professor of communication and co-director of the PolCom Lab.
听听听听听听听听听听听 The polls also reveal other implications of findings regarding media landscape, nationalization of the race, as well as ad visibility and voter engagement:
- The dominance of cable news underscores the importance of television advertising and appearances for candidates for older and more conservative voters.
- The significant share of online sources, particularly for younger voters, indicates that campaigns must maintain a strong digital presence.
- Low reliance on local news (8% in Georgia, 12% in North Carolina) suggests voters are focused on broader narratives, impacting campaign strategies.
- The near-even split in ad visibility indicates intense competition, with potential voter fatigue due to high ad saturation.聽
听听听听听听听听听听听 The polls were conducted Sept. 5 and 6 among registered voters in Georgia (647 respondents) and North Carolina (692 respondents). The surveys employed a mixed-mode methodology, combining Interactive Voice Response telephone interviews with an online panel to ensure comprehensive coverage. Respondents could complete the survey in English or Spanish. To achieve representativeness of the voting population, weights were applied for gender, race, education, and past vote. Party identification was determined by asking respondents which party they most identify with. A likely voter screen was applied based on self-reported likelihood to vote. While a traditional margin of error cannot be assigned due to the mixed methodology, a poll of this size would typically have a margin of error of approximately 卤3.9% for Georgia and 卤3.7% for North Carolina at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins for subsamples. As with all surveys, these polls are subject to various sources of error, including sampling, coverage and measurement error.聽
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