91制片厂

It鈥檚 Safer to be a Cop in the U.S. Today than 50 Years Ago

Crime, Police Officer, Deaths, Line-of-duty, Violent Crimes, War on Cops, Ferguson Effect, Dangers of Policing, Felonies

The study represents one of the most comprehensive assessments of the 鈥渄angerousness鈥 of policing to date, and also shows a statistically significant decline in felonious killings of police following the Ferguson effect and Michael Brown鈥檚 death in 2014, which directly contradicts the war on cops鈥 theory.


By gisele galoustian | 4/10/2019

There is no doubt that policing is a dangerous profession. But is it safer to be a cop today than it was 50 years ago? Yes, according to a study that analyzed police officer deaths (felonious and non-felonious) in the United States from 1970 to 2016. The study represents one of the most comprehensive assessments of the 鈥渄angerousness鈥 of policing to date and provides an important historical context on the ongoing dialogue over a perceived 鈥渨ar on cops鈥 in recent years.

Researchers from , , and the , found that despite increases in violent crimes, the hazards of policing has dramatically declined since 1970 with a 75 percent drop in police officer line-of-duty deaths. The study also refutes the theory of 鈥渨ar on cops,鈥 following the Ferguson effect and Michael Brown鈥檚 death in August 2014, and finds no evidence to support those claims.聽

鈥淥n average, there were slightly more than 1.6聽fewer聽felonious police officer deaths per month after Michael Brown鈥檚 death in August 2014 when compared with pre-August 2014,鈥 said , Ph.D., co-author and an assistant professor in the in 91制片厂鈥檚 .聽鈥淭his result directly contradicts the hypothesized war on cops, in which an increase in felonious killings after August 2014 is predicted. Our results show the opposite. In the context of nearly 50-year monthly trends, our results show a statistically significant decline in felonious killings of police after Michael Brown鈥檚 death.鈥

Results of the study, published in the , show that felonious deaths dropped by more than 80 percent. The only anomaly is 2001 when more than 70 officers were killed during the 9/11 terrorist attack. The rate of non-felonious deaths also declined by 69 percent. Furthermore, the gap between felonious and non-felonious deaths closed over time. Officer deaths peaked in 1974 at 272; in 2016 there were 134 deaths.

One factor that did not play a clear role is violent crime at the national level, which increased steadily and significantly from 1970 through the mid-1990s. At the same time, however, the number of officer deaths declined significantly.

鈥淭o put this in simple terms, if violent crime is a proxy measure of the dangerousness of the environment in which police work, it does not seem to correlate well with actual dangerousness of the profession measured as officer deaths at the national level,鈥 said Dario.

The researchers attribute the declines in officer deaths, at least in part, by the increased use of body armor and advances in trauma care that also have undoubtedly saved officers鈥 lives. Moreover, enhanced training, better policy, better supervision, and technological advances have likely played a role in the declines described in this study.

For nearly 50 years, deaths varied little in terms of geography (state), time (month), and for the most part, cause of death. Most officer characteristics also remained consistent, such as sex, rank, marital and family status, duty status, and type of agency.

The researchers also found notable changes in cause of death. For felonious deaths, gunfire was the most common cause (about three quarters overall), but deaths resulting from gunfire declined over time. This is explained in part by the 9/11 terrorist attacks 鈥 both deaths occurring that day as well as those occurring later as a result of 9/11-related illness.

Deaths resulting from vehicular assaults such as officers being struck by drunk drivers also doubled during the study period. Interestingly, deaths occurring during automobile pursuits remained stable over time (5 to 6 percent) despite policy changes adopted by departments to restrict and control pursuits.

For the study, the researchers used data from the Officer Down Memorial Page (ODMP), which captures all officer line-of-duty deaths, except for suicides, which was not part of this study. Cause of death was felonious attacks, accidents, and other non-felonious circumstances resulting from the nature of the job like a heart attack or work-related illness.

Although 2017 deaths were not included in this study, ODMP has reported that line-of-duty deaths in 2017 were at the lowest level since 1958, which directly contradicts the war on cops鈥 theory.

鈥淚n every given year, about 10 percent of police officers are assaulted. Regardless of how the death occurs, the consequences of officer line-of-duty deaths are tragic and multi-faceted, affecting officers鈥 families, coworkers, the agency, the community and the entire profession,鈥 said Dario. 鈥淭hrough our study findings, we can paint a clear picture of the declines in dangerousness over time, as well as the extraordinary stability in key features of officer line-of-duty deaths during the last 50 years or so.鈥澛

Officer deaths overall were most common in California (8 to 11 percent), Texas (8 to 11 percent), Florida (4 to 7 percent), and New York (4 to 15 percent), which is proportionate to the number of officers employed in those states.

Co-authors of the study are , Ph.D., senior author and a professor in the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Arizona State University; and , Ph.D., an assistant professor in the in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of Texas at El Paso.聽

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